Friday, July 11, 2008

Steve Jobs Knows What I Want and "I Need a New Phone"

Amusing. Due to the globe spinning, the 3G iPhone hit Australia, then Europe, then the U.S. It appears so far that phone activations in all countries except the U.S. are going fine. AT&T and Apple--unprepared for the onslaught--experienced software activating glitches, requiring iPhone buyers to complete the final activation at home using iTunes. Ah....well...

I took a quick spin around major blog and news sites this morning. The buzz surrounding Apple and AT&T stores in the U.S. appears less buzzy than during the first release. U.K. buyers and non-buyers were less gleeful--but, of course, they're British.

The funniest comment came from a New Zealand buyer who said: "Steve Jobs Knows What I want and I need a new phone." This must be true because, next to God, only Jobs would have enough insight into the cellular needs of the world.

Press reports about the 3G gray market in action are growing. The hackers, as expected, should have an unlocked 3G iPhone available on eBay and elsewhere within short order.

Not that anyone would ever return an iPhone within the 30 day AT&T "trial period," but confusion stil reigns whether the 10% restocking fee, charged by AT&T, is based on the $199 sale price or the MSRP. Time will tell, depending upon how many 3G iPhone users return the units. My guess is mostly new iPhone users will return. The diehards will keep the unit no matter the flaws documented in MTI, MarketingBeyond and elsewhere. Click here for the full documented history.

We'll let the dust settle.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

3G iPhone Battery Life & Data Download Performance: Wake Up and Smell the Coffee

For anyone thinking of visiting their local Apple or AT&T store Friday to buy the new 3G iPhone, take notice. You are NOT going to be happy with your Web surfing experience and you are NOT going to be happy as you watch the iPhone's battery drain like an SUV sucking gas. The hype continues.

Walt Mossberg in his Wall Street Journal 3G iPhone review was too nice. But at least he published his test data in today's All Things Digital to warn off the wary. The user comments will fill you in on other complaints about iPhone features--or lack thereof--I won't cover here.

In my previous post "Steve Jobs, Hype and the 3G iPhone," I wrote about the latency (crawl-and-stall) nature of AT&T's broadband mobile network--and the battery drain problem. Mossberg's review confirms what I wrote.

Mossberg, testing the 3G iPhone in New York City, only achieved download speeds of 200Kbps to 500Kbps. (That's KILOBITS, not MEGABITS.) Due to the large screen size and resolution of the iPhone, 3G vs. Wi-Fi web surfers will be greatly disappointed. Add the fast battery drain and web surfing will be like ocean surfing on a slow wave that dissipates before reaching shore.

Why is this? Why will 3G iPhone users NOT achieve AT&T's 1.4Mbps (that's MEGABITS) claim? Why does the battery drain quickly, like other AT&T 3G phones?

As Verizon rightly claims, "it's the network." Despite the best 3G radio in the iPhone, it can't overcome the built-in latency (crawl-and-stall) and turtle-speeds inherent in AT&T's 3G network. The company is furiously installing 3G cell phone towers across the U.S. But it will take at least another year before most areas of the country have 3G and even average 1Mbps mobile download speeds.

This is not true in most European and Asian countries where mobile carrier networks, optimized for high-speed Internet downloads, deliver 6Mbps to 20Mbps on average. Even smaller countries--such as Finland and Denmark--average 7Mbps. (Listen to my podcast interview with Lennart Svanberg on MarketingBeyond). Svanberg is an Internet and mobile expert. In the podcast, he talks about mobile network data speeds in Europe and Asia.

And the battery drain? It's draining quickly because the 3G radio in the iPhone needs to draw more battery power to maintain the signal and maximize the download speed. And it's not only data speeds draining the life out of the iPhone. Mossberg's tests revealed a maximum of 5 hours talk time vs. 8 hours on the original iPhone, requiring Mossberg to re-charge the iPhone daily.

Considering the additional $240 AT&T is now charging for the data plan ($30 vs. $20) per month without text messaging, I wouldn't buy the first 3G iPhone version. If you have the original iPhone, keep it, unless you're very dissatisfied with AT&T or touch phones in general.
If you're dead-set on buying a 3G iPhone, WAIT for at least a few months until AT&T and Apple fix bugs and optimize the device.

As AT&T--now approaching 75 million customers--continues expanding, network demand for voice and data services will grow faster than AT&T can deliver. Wait for the dust to settle before changing carriers or mobile devices.